Can Somalia’s frontline states eradicate so-called cross-border terrorism before ATMIS exits in 2024?
Earlier this year, the top leaders of Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya agreed to begin “Search and destroy” operations to push Al-Shabab militants out of neighboring Somalia.
The move follows an intensified offensive by Somalia’s federal government against the al-Qaeda-affiliated group over the past few months.
It has taken back control of several towns and villages in central Somalia with the help of the U.S. military, allied clan militias, and forces belonging to Somali regional governments.
Kenya’s President William Ruto, Djibouti’s President Ismail Omer Guelleh, and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met their Somali counterpart Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Mogadishu to review measures to weaken Al-Shabaab.
“The summit … agreed to jointly plan and organize a robust operational campaign at the frontline states level, of search and destroy on multiple frontlines aiming at key Al-Shabaab strongholds across the south and central Somalia,” they said in a joint statement.
What to expect?
Speeding up ongoingly targeted and sustained campaigns by the Somali Security Forces (SSF) intends for at degrading the capability of terrorist groups.
Current operations in Somalia, with ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia) and SSF in the forefront are directed at “diminishing” al-Shabaab’s operational capability and “Building on the rejection of the terror group by the Somali public”.
We’ve seen the reviewed conclusions reached by a conclave of defense ministers and defense force chiefs from the four states on the importance of coordinated and timely technical, logistical, intelligence, and operational support to accelerate anti-terror operations with the Somali National Army (SNA).
During the summit, leaders present agreed to make a final push for joint operations in the areas still under terrorist control to “completely liberate the whole of Somalia from Al-Shabaab”. This, in turn, will facilitate the drawdown of ATMIS troops and the gradual handover of security responsibility ties to the SSD. The leaders applauded “significant progress” in Somalia with more regions recovered by SSF in conjunction with ATMIS troops.
“They (the leaders) were all in common agreement on progress to rebuild and modernize Somalia’s security forces through unified efforts of force generation, capability development and support with firepower and multiplies,” the Kenya statement said.
Somali leaders want lethal and non-lethal support to equip the new SNA units and enhance the firepower of current SNA operational units the summit heard in addition to endorsing the East African country’s “quest to completely lift an arms embargo by the end of 2023”.
The Summit, the Kenya Defence Ministry statement has it, came at a crucial moment as security forces in Somalia continue to liberate more areas that have been under Al-Shabaab to enable the federal government to enhance service delivery and extend its authority. The importance of establishing a joint border security mechanism to eliminate cross-border terrorism activities and ensure the legal passage of trade and movement was stressed.
The Way-forward
To avoid the recapture of AS in the liberated areas, it is important to resume life and basic services in the liberated areas and ensure their safety.
Economically, this campaign costs millions of dollars, so Somalia’s frontline state should ask for friendly, financial, and military assistance from militarily more advanced countries to finalize the ops in a short period.
The punctuality of the fourth phase of ATMIS (Liquidation and removal) will encourage the acceleration of “search and destroy” operations, and may be enough for the rest of the time, I think.
Civilian Casualties
As usual, any operation to liberate the areas controlled by the AS can be weakened as the government ensures that some operations are harmed by the civilians living under the areas controlled by the AS.
Earlier, President Mohamud told to Up-front program from Aljazeera that there are civilian casualties caused by airstrikes targeting AS leaders, but the government should do its best to avoid harm to the public, especially when the airstrikes are carried out during the fight against terrorism.
It is important that “search and destroy” operations are very cautious not to destroy civilians, their livestock, or their farms.
In conclusion, I think that all the things pointed out above are the most critical for the enactment of SFSS2023 plans and the search for economic and military consolidation in the world.
The opinions of this commentary are solely those of the author.
Source: Somali National News Agency